Good News, Bad News
Things are going to get worse before they get better.
That's the general consensus of some of the most influential and successful business people and development workers in the Philippines.
Last week I was invited to be part of a private dinner meeting between selected business leaders and non-government organizations (NGO) representatives at the Asian Institute of Management in Makati.
Most of the people you read about in the business pages were there.
The purpose of the informal meeting was to discuss possible ways that the business and NGO communities could work together to help the Philippines weather the current crisis that is battering much of the region.
To help the discussion get under way we worked from one key question: Given our assessments of our country's present situation, and the directions set so far by the present administration, are there specific initiatives that can/should be undertaken by business and the NGO community that will contribute to the easing of social tensions that are bound to heighten with the current economic crisis? Beyond this, can we take initiatives to move the economy back to a growth path as soon as possible?
As someone who started working at the age of seven to help support my family, it was a bit disconcerting at first, sitting down with these captains of industry. But the impression I got is that they really are interested in working with NGOs to make sure that we emerge from this crisis as bet as we can. NGOs like to think that we are the conscience, while business is the capital, but the business leaders confronted us with a very pertinent and challenging question first up: why hasn't the NGO community been more vocal about deals done with ex-Marcos cronies, allowing them to keep the wealth that they accumulated during the dictatorship and absolving them of any responsibility, particularly in regard to tax?
And that's true; why haven't we been more vocal?
Our answer reflected our priorities. NGOs have not turned a blind eye to these ideals but at the moment our priority is finding ways to create jobs and build up social structures so that our people can at least maintain their standard of living.
As the discussion progressed, more predictions emerged.
The final picture was not a pleasant one: the current economic situation will not remain stable -- it will get worse; joblessness will increase and with it, social tension between the haves and the have nots (or the once-hads); the government has no money; the powerful players from the Marcos era are back in full force; leadership is a problem; the rich and business are perceived by the people as villains.
It seems that real recovery will not begin for at least two years.
To compound the problem, them meeting agreed that the first 100 days of the new administration indicates that Estrada is not a hands-on president. Questions were asked about how much time will be given to Erap to make good his election promises. How much patience do the people and the powerful have for him?
There was some good news to come out of this meeting.
The first is that the two groups-- often thought of as diametrically opposed-- actually sat down together to discuss areas in which we can work together.
These areas included the creation of jobs, taking steps to ease social tension, improving communication, vigorously campaigning for leadership transparency and being vocal against concessions that are given to the rich and powerful.
To achieve these, we need a plan that reaches out to the President, outlining what we should concentrate on and what we can achieve. The Estrada administration has only been in office for two months; it needs time.
I do not pretend that the areas we identified are a cure-all for the problems we are currently experiencing. I am not even sure how the business and NGO communities can take a coordinated approach.
But that was not the purpose of this meeting; those details will be ironed out in the near future.
What I do say is that we are not helpless. Our strength lies in unity.
The Philippines is caught up in an economic crisis that is not all of our own making and that reaches well beyond our national borders.
How we react will determine how we weather the storm. The NGO and business communities have resolved to work with the government to help overcome the current situation. We need your help too.
Yes, things are going to get worse but they don't have to be as bad as some doomsayers predict.
Published on Sept. 5, 1998